Pencil Prediction for Monday, 12/16/19

December 15, 2019
MCS Staff
As most of you know, there’s a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Northwest MoCo starting at midnight tonight. Up to two inches of snow is expected along with a light glaze of ice.
For the rest of MoCo, there’s a special weather statement that includes the “potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Monday morning commute. A period of snow and sleet is possible Monday morning, mainly after 4 AM. Up to an inch of of snow is possible through Monday morning.”
The National Weather Service currently has half of MoCo in the 1-2 inch range with very light ice accumulation expected before everything turns to rain.
As you can see in the image from Fox5, temps in Gaithersburg are expected to hit the freezing mark, which means areas like Germantown, Clarksburg, Damascus, etc. should also be there overnight.

If the higher side of projections fall, we could see some slick spots tomorrow morning, especially in areas north and west.

Pencil Prediction for Monday, 12/16/19: 2 Pencils
If an update to the pencil prediction is necessary we will keep you informed.
Below is a screen capture from the most recent prediction from the MoCoSnow app (free on iOS, Android app coming soon but we don’t have a timeframe).


  1. Al on December 15, 2019 at 10:56 pm

    Come on MoCo Snow I know there’s at least a 3-4 pencil chance. Look the way I see it is there is probably going to be some snow. That may cause slippage. I know that stickage (snow sticking to the ground) is going to be a problem with 33-34 degree weather. But regardless, of whether we get some stickage, we’re going to get some slippage.

    • Hank “scarlet” Johnson on December 16, 2019 at 4:12 am

      My name is hank “scarlet” Johnson

    • Apex Cohort Class of 2022 on December 17, 2019 at 6:33 pm

      thank you for posting this comment Alex. However, this does not excuse you from school and you must show up to school in order to receive credit in Ms. McGinty’s Apex English 10 class.

  2. Montgomery County Students on December 15, 2019 at 11:00 pm

    Ohh please let there be no school tmr or at least a delay!!!

    • elay on December 16, 2019 at 4:37 am

      Staying home anyways since decision is coming tomorrow afternoon! Please please please delay or no school so no extra work…

  3. Harry on December 15, 2019 at 11:03 pm

    what the freak

  4. Maxwell on December 15, 2019 at 11:28 pm
  5. Waiting for mcps to decide on December 15, 2019 at 11:43 pm

    Based on current forecasts this seems more like a 2.5 or 3 pencil event, but that’s just my opinion.

  6. A student who loves playing Madden when school is closed! on December 15, 2019 at 11:59 pm

    Do u see any chance of a closure, I know u put 20%, but do u think it’s realistic

  7. A MCPS student who loves closures! on December 16, 2019 at 12:06 am

    Idk, in my opinion it should be 2.5 pencils. 65% of a delay or something like that. I do find it insane that the app prediction isn’t even 45, that just isn’t right plainly. Hope you change it to 2.5 pencils. Just my opinion though, I want a delay!

  8. ellie on December 16, 2019 at 1:03 am

    i really want a snow day i’ve been so stressed lately and just want a day off ?

    • Jen on December 16, 2019 at 6:24 am

      Same sis….. same

  9. A MCPS student who loves closures! on December 16, 2019 at 2:57 am

    After reading through the winter weather advisory and looking at basic facts, I find it personally very hard for there to not be a delay. I think the prediction should be at 3 pencils, especially because of PWCS closing.
    I would say
    Delay: 70%
    Closure: 43%

  10. lara on December 16, 2019 at 3:05 am

    i honestly think it should be 3 pencils because with the snow, ice and rain, it should be slippery and it would not be safe to get to school. I think 40% of delay is unrealistic based on the forecasts, and I think MocoSnow should update it to at least 60% and 40% full closure. Hopefully we get a snow day!

  11. MrPWS6 on December 16, 2019 at 3:28 am

    Why are the timestamps that people post in the future? Several people posted and it says Dec 16th….and it is still December 15.

    • A MCPS student who loves closures! on December 16, 2019 at 10:42 am

      Yeah I noticed the replies are always 5 hours ahead to the actual time when they were posted, weird.

  12. Joe on December 16, 2019 at 3:32 am

    I think MoCoSnow is being very optimistic with his ratings for 12/16. We will all be at school on time?

    • A MCPS student who loves closures! on December 16, 2019 at 10:57 am

      Lol we already have a delay with possible closure

    • Every Mcps Student on December 16, 2019 at 1:45 pm

      No offense Joe, but I am so glad that you are wrong 😉 NO SCHOOL!!!

  13. Al on December 16, 2019 at 12:03 pm

    And they say we wouldn’t have a day off. #KeepStriving #Don’tListenToTheHaters #2pencilMoreLike5pencil

  14. Al on December 17, 2019 at 12:41 am

    Chances are no school tomorrow. It’ll dip down into the low 20s and 10s or the high 30s, leading to ice accumulation and perhaps a little snow accumulation. With ground accumulation that could trigger air accumulation. The snow on the ground will trigger a chemical reaction which could cause air accumulation. Believe it or not snow will begin to fall and add to the ground accumulation. For non-scientists, this means…. HIGH CHANCES FOR NO SCHOOL

    • A MCPS student who loves closures! on December 17, 2019 at 9:07 pm

      Ha Ha Ha. No precipitation of any kind is expected (1% chance), which means no snow, ice, or even rain. There is a 0% of Snow. The tempatures at the lowest are around 29°. I can’t wait to see you be wrong, so wrong.

      • A MCPS student who loves Closures! on December 18, 2019 at 12:55 pm

        Told You.

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